Source: New York Fed
The US consumers expect the median consumer prices in the one-year-ahead period to be 6.6%, a new series high and an increase from February estimates of 6.0%. SPY is down -1.10%, DXY is +0.10%.
- Consumers are still optimistic that inflation will wane in the medium and longer-term, with expectations of a gain of 3.7% in three years, down from February estimates of 3.8%.
- The median inflation uncertainty, which gauges future inflation outcomes, also rose in the short-term horizon to a record high but remained unchanged in the medium-term period at a series high.
- Consumers also expect home prices to surge one year from now, with the medium costs seen to rise by 6.0% from previous estimates of 5.7%. The level remains elevated to the pre-pandemic estimates of 3.0%.
- Americans expect their one-year ahead earnings growth to remain constant at 3.0%, a third straight month of no-change rating. The probability that the American unemployment rate will rise one year from now increased by 1.7% to 36.2%, the highest in 13 months.
- Americans are also less upbeat about household incomes, with the median expected growth in household income falling by 0.2% in March to 3.0%, the lowest since August 2021.
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