China’s economy likely climbed at a record pace of 19% in the first quarter following the pandemic slump in 2020, according to a Reuters poll.
- The expected increase is according to the median forecasts of 47 economists polled. If realized, this will be the strongest since at least 1992, when official quarterly records started.
- The world’s second-largest economy expanded by 6.5% in the last quarter of 2020, after China managed to largely bring the COVID-19 pandemic under control.
- Economists say growth will be driven by the low base in the first quarter of 2020, along with higher exports and improving domestic demand.
- Official first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) will be released on Friday, along with March factory output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment.
- For the full year 2021, economists expect growth at 8.6% to mark the strongest pace in a decade. The economy grew by 2.3% in 2020.
- Growth is seen to moderate to 5.5% in 2022 to reflect the global economic normalization, and the country’s slowing trajectory due to structural and demographic changes.