The United States’ economy could grow 10% in the first quarter of 2021 after positive data drove estimates higher, according to the forecasting model of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth has been upped from the 8.8% forecast on February 26.
- The upgrades follow the release of the Manufacturing ISM Report on Business from the Institute of Supply Management and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau.
- Nowcasts for growth of other indices in the first sector were also upgraded. Personal consumption up to 8.8% from 7.7%; gross private domestic investment to 18.7% from 17.7%; and government spending to 9.1% from 6.9%.
- Estimates are based solely on the mathematical results of the model, and do not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data.