The U.S. Energy Information Administration is set to release its natural-gas storage data for the week on Thursday. Analysts predict that inventories will show a below-average increase, due to soaring temperatures in Texas and other parts of the Southern Plains. The extreme heat has led to a surge in demand for gas-fired electricity generation to power air-conditioning units.
According to a survey of 12 analysts, brokers, and traders conducted by The Wall Street Journal, gas in storage is expected to have risen by 47 billion cubic feet during the week ended Sept. 8. This estimate falls within a range of 40 bcf to 58 bcf. In comparison, last year saw a rise of 74 bcf during the same week, with the five-year average increase standing at 76 bcf.
If the forecast holds true, gas stockpiles would reach a total of 3.195 trillion cubic feet – a 15.8% increase from last year’s levels at this time. Additionally, there would be a surplus of 6.4% when compared to the five-year average.
In early 2023, domestic natural-gas production hit record highs and has remained elevated ever since. This resulted in an inventory surplus that reached levels close to a glut, with stockpiles exceeding normal levels by 24% in the spring. However, weak demand resulting from a mild winter and a shrinking U.S. manufacturing sector contributed to an abundance of stockpiles.
This year, consumption rates have shown improvement in the second half, driven by stronger demand from the LNG export sector and persistent summer heat in various regions, leading to increased cooling demand. As a result, the inventory surplus has significantly narrowed.
Overall, the upcoming natural-gas data release will provide valuable insights into how supply and demand dynamics are shaping the market.
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