According to a survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal, U.S. crude-oil inventories are expected to experience a small uptick from the previous week, as indicated by data from the Energy Department. Nine analysts and traders were polled, with their estimates revealing that U.S. commercial crude-oil stockpiles are projected to have increased by 900,000 barrels for the week ending on October 6. While three forecasters anticipate a decrease, six expect an increase. Expectations for the change range from a decrease of 1.7 million barrels to an increase of 3 million barrels.
Gasoline Inventories Forecasted to Rise
Analysts predict that gasoline inventories will rise by 400,000 barrels in comparison to the previous week’s data. Estimates for this change vary, ranging from a decrease of 2 million barrels to an increase of 3.1 million barrels.
Decrease Projected for Distillate Stocks
Distillate stocks, predominantly comprising diesel fuel, are likely to report a decrease of 300,000 barrels from the previous week. Forecasts indicate a range of possibilities, extending from a decrease of 2 million barrels to an increase of 3 million barrels.
The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration’s highly anticipated inventory data will be released at 11 a.m. ET on Thursday, one day later than usual due to the Columbus Day holiday observed on Monday.
Weekly Refinery Use Forecast
According to industry analysts, refinery use is expected to decrease by 0.3 percentage points from the previous week, to reach 87.0%. Forecasts range from a decrease of 0.8 percentage points to an increase of 1 percentage point. Notably, two analysts did not provide a forecast.
Weekly Petroleum Statistics
The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported its data for the week, revealing the following changes:
- Crude supplies increased by 12.9 million barrels
- Gasoline stocks rose by 3.6 million barrels
- Diesel inventories decreased by 3.5 million barrels
| Analyst | Crude (mil barrels) | Gasoline (mil barrels) | Distillates (mil barrels) | Refinery Use (percentage points) | |—————————|———————|————————|————————–|———————————-| | Again Capital | -1.4 | 2.3 | 1.6 | -0.6 | | Confluence Investment Mgmt| 1 | -2 | -1 | -0.5 | | DTN | 1.6 | -1.8 | -1 | -0.4 | | Excel Futures | -1.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | -0.5 | | Spartan Capital Securities| -1.1 | 1.8 | -0.8 | n/f | | Mizuho | 3 | -1 | -2 | -0.5 | | Price Futures Group | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | | Ritterbusch and Associates| 3 | -1 | -1.7 | -0.8 | | Tradition Energy | 0.5 | -1 | -2 | n/f | | AVERAGE | 0.9 | 0.4 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
Note: “n/f” indicates no forecast, and “unch” represents no change.