Economists expect Federal Reserve officials to remain dovish in the latest quarterly rate forecast “dot plot,” and indicate that the earliest possible rate hike would be in 2023.
- Over half of the economists surveyed believe that the median of 18 Fed officials will pencil in at least one increase in 2023.
- The rest of the respondents expect rates to remain unchanged until 2024, in line with dot plot released in March.
- Respondents expect a quarter-point rate hike by the end of 2023 and another half point by end-2024.
- Some 40% of the economists polled forecast the Fed to start tapering down its $120 billion monthly bond buying program in August. Another 24% expect the scaling down to start in September.
- Fed officials such as Vice Chair Richard Clarida earlier said scaling down monetary stimulus could be discussed in the upcoming meetings.
- The Bloomberg survey of economists covered 51 respondents from June 4 to 10.